October 1, 2026 marks the start of the new fiscal year for H-1B workers selected in the FY2027 cap process.
It is not the date the new wage-weighted lottery begins.
The new system already ran for the first time in March 2026. It changed how cap-subject H-1B registrations were selected, giving higher-wage positions more entries in the selection pool.
That means the biggest question now is not what happens on October 1. It is what the new system means for workers who were not selected and for employers preparing for the next H-1B registration season. See also: “H-1Bs getting crushed”: is the $100k fee already blocked? What to actually watch.
The weighted lottery already happened
DHS published the final weighted-selection rule on December 29, 2025. The rule took effect February 27, 2026, making it applicable to the FY2027 H-1B cap season.
The FY2027 registration period ran from March 4 through March 19, 2026.
USCIS then selected enough registrations to meet the FY2027 numerical allocations. Selected employers received the opportunity to file H-1B petitions during the applicable filing period.
For workers whose FY2027 petitions were approved with an October 1 start date, October 1 is therefore the beginning of H-1B employment under that fiscal-year cap.
The lottery itself is already over.
How does the new wage weighting work?
Under the new system, USCIS does not give every registration exactly the same number of chances.
The registration is associated with a Department of Labor wage level for the offered position:
| Wage level | Entries in selection pool |
|---|---|
| Level I | 1 |
| Level II | 2 |
| Level III | 3 |
| Level IV | 4 |
The wage level is based on the prevailing wage system and the occupation and geographic area associated with the position. It is not simply a comparison of one worker’s salary with another worker’s salary.
In other words, a $100,000 salary does not automatically mean Level III or IV. The relevant question is how that offered wage compares with the applicable prevailing wage for the occupation and location.
DHS estimated that the new system would produce substantially different selection probabilities by wage level. Its analysis estimated approximately:
- Level I: 15.29%
- Level II: 30.58%
- Level III: 45.87%
- Level IV: 61.16%
For comparison, DHS calculated the historical random-selection probability used in its analysis at 29.59% across wage levels.
Those numbers are projections, not guaranteed individual odds. DHS’s analysis depends on assumptions about the distribution of registrations and wages, and the agency itself noted that actual future registration behavior could affect the results.
Why Level I workers face a different lottery
The biggest change is at the bottom of the wage scale.
Under the old random-selection system, a Level I registration did not receive fewer lottery entries simply because the position was classified at the lowest prevailing-wage level.
Under the new system, it receives one entry instead of two, three or four.
DHS estimates that this would reduce the selection probability for Level I registrations by about 48% compared with the historical random-selection probability used in its analysis. Level III and Level IV registrations, by contrast, receive substantially more weight.
That does not mean every entry-level worker has exactly a 15.29% chance of selection. The number is DHS’s projected probability for the wage-level group under its modeling assumptions.
Does a higher salary guarantee selection?
No.
This is an important distinction.
A Level IV registration gets four entries into the selection pool, but that does not guarantee selection.
Likewise, a Level I registration still has a chance of being selected.
The rule changes the probability distribution. It does not create a separate quota for each wage level.
The annual statutory H-1B cap remains 65,000 regular cap numbers plus 20,000 additional numbers for beneficiaries with qualifying U.S. advanced degrees.
The weighting changes how registrations compete for those numbers. It does not turn the four wage levels into four separate H-1B caps. See also: $100,000 or $103,265? What the viral H-1B fee videos keep getting wrong.
What happens if the same worker has multiple registrations?
The system also addresses multiple registrations for the same beneficiary.
USCIS uses a beneficiary-centric selection process. Where a beneficiary has registrations at different wage levels, the rules prevent employers from simply creating different wage-level registrations for that beneficiary to manufacture additional selection opportunities.
Under the final rule, USCIS uses the lowest wage level among the registrations submitted for the beneficiary for purposes of the weighted selection.
That matters because otherwise an employer could potentially try to improve the beneficiary’s lottery position by submitting registrations at artificially different wage levels.
What does this mean for an H-1B worker starting October 1?
If an FY2027 registration was selected and the resulting petition was approved, the wage-weighted lottery is no longer something the worker needs to worry about for that particular selection.
October 1 is the relevant date because it is the beginning of FY2027 and the standard start date for cap-subject H-1B employment selected through that cycle.
The more immediate issues are petition approval, employment authorization, status changes or visa processing, depending on the worker’s circumstances.
For someone whose FY2027 registration was not selected, however, the new system matters a lot more.
What if the FY2027 registration was not selected?
An unselected registration does not become selected simply because October 1 arrives.
The worker and employer generally have to wait for a future cap registration opportunity unless another H-1B route is available.
For many people, that means preparing for the next registration season, expected in 2027 for FY2028.
That preparation may include reviewing the offered position, occupation code, work location and applicable prevailing wage level with immigration counsel before registration.
A higher wage level can improve the position’s weighting, but the wage level must correspond to the actual job and applicable wage data. Simply increasing a number on the registration is not a shortcut around the underlying requirements.
What if the employer is a university or research organization?
The wage-weighted lottery applies to cap-subject H-1B petitions.
Certain employers and organizations are cap-exempt, including qualifying institutions of higher education and certain nonprofit research organizations and governmental research organizations.
A qualifying cap-exempt H-1B petition does not compete in the annual 65,000-plus-20,000 cap selection process.
That means the wage-weighted lottery is generally not the issue for someone whose H-1B petition falls within a cap-exempt category.
What about the separate $100,000 H-1B payment?
The wage-weighted lottery should not be confused with the separate $100,000 H-1B payment requirement introduced by the September 2025 presidential proclamation.
The two measures address different parts of the H-1B system.
The proclamation restricted the entry of certain H-1B workers whose petitions were filed after September 21, 2025 unless the required $100,000 payment accompanied or supplemented the petition, subject to the proclamation’s exceptions and subsequent guidance. USCIS’s September 20, 2025 memorandum described the restriction as applying prospectively to petitions that had not yet been filed. See also: The proposed $103,265 H-1B fee: what it means for workers and applicants.
That issue should therefore not be presented as though the $100,000 amount is part of the wage-weighted lottery.
For a worker changing status inside the United States, the applicability of the payment can also depend on the circumstances of the petition and current USCIS guidance. This is an area where relying on social-media summaries is risky.
What happens next?
For FY2027, the major selection event has already happened.
The important dates are:
| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| Weighted-selection rule published | December 29, 2025 |
| Rule effective | February 27, 2026 |
| FY2027 registration period | March 4 to 19, 2026 |
| FY2027 selection | March 2026 |
| FY2027 employment begins | October 1, 2026 |
| Next registration cycle | Expected in 2027 for FY2028 |
The next major lottery question will therefore be FY2028, not October 1.
Employers planning to register workers in 2027 will need to understand the wage level associated with each position before registration. The difference between Level I, II, III and IV can now affect how many entries that beneficiary receives in the selection pool.
The numbers at a glance
| Wage level | Entries | DHS estimated selection probability |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | 1 | 15.29% |
| Level II | 2 | 30.58% |
| Level III | 3 | 45.87% |
| Level IV | 4 | 61.16% |
| Historical random selection | 1 | 29.59% |
The figures above are DHS projections, not guaranteed odds for an individual registration.
The practical change is straightforward: the H-1B cap lottery is no longer an equal-weight lottery. Higher wage levels receive more selection weight, while lower wage levels receive less.
But October 1, 2026 is not the start of that change. The first wage-weighted selection already took place in March.
For anyone selected in FY2027, October 1 is about starting the approved H-1B employment. For anyone preparing for FY2028, the more important question is what wage level the offered position will carry when the next registration is submitted.
Sources: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Federal Register, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.
